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California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council

Harnessing the Power of UCERF3 for Earthquake Preparedness

Introduction

The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) is an invaluable tool for seismic risk assessment and earthquake preparedness in California. Developed by renowned experts in the field, this comprehensive forecast provides critical insights into the likelihood, magnitude, and location of potential earthquakes across the state.

Scientifically Rigorous Evaluation

The UCERF3 models undergo rigorous evaluation by a Scientific Review Panel and the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC). These independent bodies ensure the accuracy and reliability of the forecast, anchoring it in sound scientific principles.

In Memory of Clarence Allen

Clarence Allen, a pioneering geologist and geophysicist, played a pivotal role in the development of the UCERF3. His contributions to the field of seismology are a testament to his unwavering commitment to earthquake science and safeguarding the public from seismic hazards.

Advisory Statements for Emergency Preparedness

Since 1985, the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) has leveraged the UCERF3 to issue advisory statements to local communities. These statements provide crucial information to emergency managers and first responders, enabling them to prepare for and mitigate the potential impacts of earthquakes.

Improvements in UCERF3

The publication titled "The Third California Earthquake Rupture Forecast UCERF3 A Synoptic Overview" highlights recent advancements in the UCERF3. These improvements enhance the forecast's precision and accuracy, making it an even more effective tool for safeguarding lives and property from seismic events.

By harnessing the power of the UCERF3, we can significantly improve our ability to prepare for and respond to earthquakes in California. This collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and emergency managers strengthens our resilience and minimizes the impacts of these natural hazards on our communities.


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